In short: a bonus is worth taking only if (partner points you get × what each is worth) is clearly more than what your bank points are worth on their own. Find the award first. Bonuses come back.
Banks run transfer bonuses all the time: move points to an airline or hotel this month and get 25% or 35% extra. Big numbers, but the bonus only matters if the points you get are worth more than the points you give up.
The check
- What are your bank points worth to you? Most people who transfer get somewhere around 1.5 cents or more per point. If you'd only ever cash out, it's closer to 1 cent.
- What will the points you get be worth, after the bonus?
If number 2 isn't clearly higher than number 1, skip the bonus. Move the sliders:
What a bank point is worth to you without the bonus
Skip it. Your points are worth more somewhere else. The black line is what you get without the bonus.
The one line version
Value per bank point = partner points per bank point × (1 + bonus) × cents per partner point
Or work it backwards. To beat 1.5 cents per bank point with a 35% bonus at 1 to 1, each partner point has to be worth more than 1.5 ÷ 1.35 ≈ 1.11 cents. With a 25% bonus, more than 1.2 cents.
Example: Amex to Marriott, 35% (until December 10)
1,000 Amex points become 1,350 Marriott points. Marriott points are usually valued around 0.7 to 0.75 cents each.
1,350 × 0.75 cents ≈ $10, or about 1 cent per Amex point.
That's less than most people get from Amex points on flights. It makes sense only if you're a few thousand points short of a Marriott night you've already found.
Example: Amex to Flying Blue, 25% (until October 31)
With the bonus, a 50,000 mile award costs 40,000 Amex points instead of 50,000. If you already have a seat in mind, that's a real saving. If you don't, the bonus will come back. They run often.
Watch for ratios that aren't 1 to 1
The bonus applies on top of the normal ratio. A 30% bonus on a 5 to 4 transfer gives 1,040 partner points per 1,000 bank points (1,000 × 0.8 × 1.3), not 1,300. Check the base ratio for your bank in where your points can go.
Rules I'd keep
- Never transfer just because a bonus is running. Find the award first.
- Check the ratio for your card. Some banks give less on cheaper cards.
- Bonuses come back. Missing one is cheaper than wasting points.
